Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Daily Kos: Reporting on the Polls.....

Daily Kos printed some interesting poll results today. Good reason to be optimistic; a few places for concern. I'm listening to the always harpyish Mary Matalin on MSNBC right now; she's projecting the Dems will lose seats in the Senate and the Republicans will keep the House. The most surprising thing she's said so far? Tim Russert just showed her a bumber sticker which identifies hand-picked GOP candidate Michael Steele as a "democrat." Mary Matalin says that's ok to do. Blech.

I guess they need every trick in the book: Rasmussen says: Steele (R) 43% Cardin (D) 50%.

Here are a couple of other races of note.

MONTANA (Senate)

Mason-Dixon for McClatchy/MSNBC (PDF). 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/26-28 results)

Burns (R) 43 (40)
Tester (D) 46 (47)

I'm sort of surprised at this one given Sen. Burns' affection for the taste of his own foot. Tester is an attractive candidate. I've met him and his wife Sharla and have spent a good deal of time talking to them. They are genuine, warm, and accessible people. Tester is an extremely bright guy and a quick study. He'll make a great senator.

OHIO (Governor, open; Senate)

Mason-Dixon for McClatchy/MSNBC (PDF). 10/18-20. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/25-27 results)

Governor

Blackwell (R) 29 (36)
Strickland (D) 48 (53)

What's not to like about this one? It's got the same sort of revenge-is-sweet cache as this Survey USA poll which has Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ahead of Republican Katherine Harris 55% to 37%.

TENNESSEE (Senate, open)

Mason-Dixon for McClatchy/MSNBC (PDF). 10/18-20. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/25-27 results)

Corker (R) 45 (42)
Ford (D) 43 (43)

Here's a race where a de-motivated base could make a big difference. I'm also interested in any poll movement due to the recent and racist RNC ad. I lived in Tennessee for several years and have faith that Tennesseans have moved beyond this kind of attack.

VIRGINIA (Senate)

Mason-Dixon for McClatchy/MSNBC (PDF). 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/25-27 results)

Allen (R) 47 (43)
Webb (D) 43 (43)

What a difference a maccaca makes. Who knew that running around spouting racial slurs could come back to haunt you? I can't wait for this one.